Will petrol prices go down? The wholesale signal by city
TGP · week ending
- Perth calls right (5 yrs, weekly)
- 103/129
- Hit rate of non-hold calls
- Typical margin, Perth & Sydney
- 9.4
- National TGP, 7 days
- +1.6
The terminal gate price leads the bowser by a week or two. Nationally it has moved +1.6 cents in the last seven days and +32.9 in 28, to 232.8 c/L on Friday 2 October.
In Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Adelaide the terminal is steady but the bowser has not caught up with the last month's rise: the retail margin is more than five cents under its usual 9.4, and margins that thin rarely last. Expect the next restoration to stick.
City by city
| City | TGP ULP | 7 days | 28 days | Margin | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sydney | 234.3 | +1.2 | +33.5 | 4.3 | catching up |
| Melbourne | 232.4 | +2.0 | +33.7 | 3.9 | catching up |
| Brisbane | 233.3 | +0.9 | +32.2 | 5.0 | hold |
| Perth | 230.5 | +2.1 | +32.0 | 3.8 | catching up |
| Adelaide | 231.0 | +1.5 | +32.3 | 3.3 | catching up |
| Canberra | 234.3 | +1.2 | +33.5 | 12.2 | hold |
| Hobart | 236.8 | +2.3 | +34.3 | 9.0 | hold |
| Darwin | 239.8 | +2.2 | +32.3 | 6.9 | hold |
How the signal is built, and how often it is right
The rule is simple and published. If a city's terminal price rose by three cents or more over seven days, expect the bowser to rise; if it fell by three or more, expect it to ease. Otherwise look at the margin (weekly retail average minus the week's terminal price) against its usual level, about 9.4 c in Perth and Sydney over the last year: more than six cents above it leaves room to fall; more than five below it means retail is still catching up. Anything else is 'hold'.
Tested on Perth's daily FuelWatch median since 2021, with one reading each Monday and the margin measured against its own trailing year, the rule's non-hold calls were right 103 times out of 129 (80%); by type, rise: 46 of 54; ease: 35 of 45; room to fall: 17 of 22; catching up: 5 of 8. It knows nothing about the cycle, excise changes announced in advance or a shock in the oil market after the reading.
For context on how far the terminal can travel, twenty-two years of terminal prices sit on one chart.
Quick answers
When will petrol prices go down?
When terminal gate prices fall and retail catches up, usually within one to two weeks. The table shows which cities have a falling terminal now.
How accurate is this forecast?
In Perth since 2021 its non-hold calls were right 80% of the time (103 of 129 weeks).
What is the terminal gate price?
The wholesale price at which fuel is sold at a terminal to retailers and distributors, including excise and GST. AIP publishes the daily average for each capital.